Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. The expected vote is the total number of votes that are expected in a given race once all votes are counted. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Here are the main races well be watching. Among those 18 to 49 years old, some 38% said they would vote for him. likelihood, a Democratic will win in 2022. Mandela Barnes, delivering a critical victory for Republicans. NYT Graphics Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. Nov. 8, 2022, Arizona has multiple races featuring Republicans who have questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election. Voters can still cast a ballot in person in the primary election on Saturday, if that is their preference, but most are expected to vote by mail. Maggie Astor A 65% approval rating is pretty remarkable for someone whos been in office for a while and was the face of COVID. Alicia Parlapiano Enjoy this free story! The support Ms. Tokuda received from outside groups which, in addition to the Congressional Progressive Caucus, included Representative Pramila Jayapals Medicare for All PAC was dwarfed by what Mr. Branco received, from organizations that included VoteVets, cryptocurrency groups and the centrist Mainstream Democrats. Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii is on the ballot in the Democratic primary, facing only a nominal challenger as he seeks re-election in the deep-blue state. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections . Green's performance was the highest percentage of the vote ever received by any gubernatorial candidate in the state's history. On the Republican side, 48% of Republican primary voters would pick James Duke Aiona a former deputy prosecutor, judge and two-term lieutenant governor. David Ige. Green, who is an ER doctor on Hawaii Island, got the most support from Hawaii County. Our campaign is gaining significant momentum, and our own internal polls show Vicky Cayetano has surged to a much stronger #2 in the race. The question was put to 320 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. Mr. Schatz has held the seat since 2012, when he was appointed after the death of Senator Daniel K. Inyoue, a towering figure in Hawaii who had served in the Senate since 1963. A total of 800 registered Hawaii voters were interviewed statewide by landline telephone and cell phones. , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. Asked for a comment about his numbers, Kahele told the Star- Advertiser in a terse email: (My) official comment is: Why dont you ask Andy Winer?. As of Aug. 10, about 234,000 ballots had already been returned, according to Hawaiis Office of Elections. Hawaii has supported Democrats in every presidential election in which it has participated, except 1972 and 1984 , when incumbent Republican candidates won 49-state landslides. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. That compares with $475,274 for Cayetano, whose contributions included a $350,000 loan she gave to her campaign. Next. Another participant, Natasha Shinyame, a 40-year-old flooring contractor from Mililani, said she prefers Cayetano. Alicia Parlapiano Greens dominance includes majority support from every county, ethnic group and even 52% overall support from Republicans, according to the poll. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. J.D. . Nate Cohn These same counties favored Biden over Trump in 2020 by a margin of 8 percentage points a whopping 19-point swing. , Kim Schrier, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Washingtons Eighth Congressional District. that guide every prediction he makes. For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. Winer previously served as Hawaii director for Barack Obamas presidential campaign and has helped U.S. Sens. In Colorado, a measure to decriminalize certain psychedelics is close but yet to be decided. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. Print subscriber but without online access? Maggie Astor There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Thats almost a third of all ballots sent out this cycle and more than all mail ballots returned in the entire 2018 primary election. Some 56% of respondents said they recognized Greens name and had a favorable opinion, compared to 24% for Caldwell and 13% for Cayetano. #7-500 Compared with 2020 presidential vote in places that have reported almost all of their John Fetterman. If somehow Caldwell could turn that around, especially with rail hanging over him, that would be amazing.. All in all, he did really well. Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. By The Associated Press. . In North Carolinas Senate race, Representative Ted Budd, a Trump-endorsed Republican, is very likely to win, according to our estimates. , Brandon Williams, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks 22nd Congressional District. Lazaro Gamio Pre-registration is available beginning at age 16. According to a new Civil. . , Matt Cartwright, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Pennsylvanias Eighth Congressional District. Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Lazaro Gamio One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. Leadership on this statewide crisis has transcended historic identity politics resulting in unprecedented support among, for example, the Japanese community and the Hawaiian community., Green told the Star-Advertiser in a statement, Weve been through a lot together in Hawaii over the past two years, so Im humbled to have the support and trust of so many people across our state, but I dont take it for granted. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. , Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. . Lazaro Gamio Read this story for free: Watch an ad or complete a survey, Hawaii lieutenant governors race deadlocked, Voters give Ige and Biden approval boost, Hawaii Poll shows, Misdemeanor probe into Honolulu police union leadership forwarded to state Attorney General, Hawaii Real Estate Sales: June 13 June 17, 2022. Alicia Parlapiano 500 Ala Moana Blvd. Maggie Astor Only 7% said they did not recognize Greens name, compared to 11% for Caldwell and 35% for Cayetano, suggesting she has to remind voters of who she is. Lt. Gov. Jason Kao , Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, a 2020 election denier, defeated Lt. Gov. Arizonas closely watched races for Senate and governor remained too close to call in the state, where 400,000 ballots in Maricopa County await counting. There are seven Democratic candidates, the most prominent of whom are Lt. Gov. , Susie Lee, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Nevadas Third Congressional District. Lazaro Gamio The figure can change as NBC News gathers new information. Cayetano communications director Lynne Waters wrote in a statement that, Much has transpired since the interviews for this poll were conducted, notably the recent series of televised debates. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. In third place is City Councilwoman Heidi Tsuneyoshi at 9%. To learn more about how election results work, read this article. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022 When polls close Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. Lt. Gov. The Hawaii Poll was conducted Jan. 24 to 28 by telephone by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C. Albert Sun Lt. Gov. Kahele, who is from Hawaii County, saw his strongest support on Kauai. Duke Aiona has 27% of the vote while MMA champion BJ Penn is at 24%. [7] Registration can be completed in the following ways: " Online: Visit olvr.hawaii.gov. In a statement to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, Greens campaign said, Green is viewed as consistent and credible, winning high job approval and favorability ratings from voters who view him as the leader of the largest public health initiative in state history. Read more Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. , Greg Landsman, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios First Congressional District. Our average includes all candidates that. All rights reserved. Heres how they performed when compared with the 2020 presidential candidates. Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. So why do most states hold their primary elections on Tuesdays? But with turnout typically much lower in primary elections and in midterm cycles, that delay was not expected this year. The overwhelming support in the Hawaii Poll comes six months ahead of the primary election, when voters will have their first official say on which candidate should succeed Gov. She is expected to win easily in November against Joe Akana, the winner of the Republican primary, for the seat being vacated by Representative Kai Kahele, a Democrat who opted to run for governor but lost. In this solidly blue state, the Democratic primaries are likely to determine the November winners. Sergio Alcubilla, attorney and former director of external relations, Tommy Waters, Honolulu city councilmember and chair, Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters (HRCC), Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Hawaii, United Public Workers, AFSCME, Local 646, AFL-CIO, General Contractors Association of Hawaii, Lynn Barry Mariano, retired Army Officer and Civil Servant, Paul Morgan, business consultant and former member of the, Peter Savio, businessperson and real estate developer, State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers, police union, This page was last edited on 17 February 2023, at 23:45. Ron DeSantis over Democratic opponent Charlie Crist by a margin of 11 percentage points. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Nate Cohn The United States presidential election of 2016 was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. 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